A probability/trends look at the Royals chances to rally from 3-2 deficit + What Royals have to do to win it

The Royals are no stranger to rallying from 3-2 World Series deficit at home...

The Royals are no stranger to rallying from 3-2 World Series deficit at home…

A week ago it was a euphoric World Series Eve in Kansas City. Fifteen innings ago, the Royals were up 4-1 in the third inning, leading the World Series two games to one. Since, the Giants have scored 16 unanswered runs. Now, the Royals have lost consecutive games for the first time since September 19-20 (Detroit at Kauffman Stadium) and are returning home for Game 6 facing elimination.

It’s the 34th time a team has returned home down 3-2. Historically, it doesn’t end well, losing 20 of the 33 series, but, they’re 10-23 in Game 6’s. But, recent history is really on the Royals side. Home teams have won the World Series outright in eight of the last 10 chances, dating back to 1982. The only exceptions are the 1992 Atlanta Braves, who lost to Toronto, and the 2003 Yankees, who lost to the Marlins. Both of those series ended in Game 6. Since the Pirates won in 1979, road teams are 0-9 in Game 7’s. But, amazingly, they were 20-4 prior.

Both teams have been in this situation before. In 1985, the Royals won Games 6 and 7 at home to win their only World Series. Now, to get out of the 1985 shadow, they’ll need history on their side again.

“We’re just living in the moment, enjoying it now, knowing we have a good opportunity to go back home and win two games,” Alex Gordon said. “It’s going to be hard to do, but we’re up for the challenge, and we think we can get it done.”

The Giants, facing the Angels in 2002, won the first game on the road and then lost Game 2, lost Game 3 at home but won the next two nights to regain the series lead, only to lose the last two. What is also significant about the year? It’s the only other time two Wild Card’s have played in the World Series, other than this year.

The last time the Royals lost a Game 5 of the World Series tied 2-all in a best of seven format, their series record is 0-1, having lost the 1980 World Series under such circumstances. The Giants HAVE NEVER won a tied 2-games-all or lead 3-games-2 best-of-7 World Series; they’re 0-2 after winning Game 5, like last night, in a tied 2-games-2 series, having also lost in 1962, joining 2002. When the Giants have lost both best-of-7 MLB playoff series in which they led 3-games-2 but didn’t win Game 6. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-2, the Kansas City Royals lost to the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 6 to lose the 1980 World Series.

The teams that have won Game 1’s have won 9 of the last 10 World Series; teams that have won Game 3 of a 1-1 series have won 67% of the series’ and of the 43 times a World Series was tied 2-2, the game five winner won the series 28, but just four of the last 11.

So, you got all of that?

Basically, history is not on the Royals side, but recent history is. And teams trends strongly favors the Royals.

“We know we can do it,” Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer said. “We have a confident group in here.”

Basically…

Now, Conrad breaks down the rest of the series and what the Royals have to do to win it…

***

The last time the Royals played a must win game was September 30. They are going to play another, almost one full month later tomorrow night. They have Yordano Ventura taking the hill Tuesday, and there is no one else on this team I’d rather have up there in this situation. The 23-year-old gives the Royals the best chance to win. It’s no secret that the recipe to win for this Royals team is good starting pitching, stellar defense, then get it to the big three at the back of the bullpen. That’s what they’re going to have to do again. While a number of players have good career numbers against the Giants’, Jake Peavy, hoping to outslug them would be unwise. Sure if the Royals hit some homers, they’ll gladly take them, but sticking to the usual script is what should be expected.

The Royals have only drawn six walks over the first five games of the series. I do not expect them to be more patient at the plate, as much as I’d absolutely love to see it. Just like the long ball, walking just isn’t something that the Royals know how to do. There are rumors that Ned Yost is considering moving Mike Moustakas and his .188 World Series average up from the nine-hole in game six. So be it. No one on this team is locked in right now. All five of Moose’s postseason RBI have come from his four homers. Cain is putting together the best at bats on the team, and he is already right where he should probably be at three. No change to this lineup built of mostly mediocre plate approaches is going to make worlds of difference on the scoreboard.

What I think our boys in blue need to do in order to force a game seven is look for inside pitches. As a whole, this team is overly aggressive on pitches off the plate outside. Peavy is a smart veteran, and if I’m him, I’m working off the plate all night long until the Royals prove to me they can lay off that pitch. Leave that pitch there, fellas. It’s killing you. I know that is far easier said than done, but even a few pitches left outside, forcing Peavy and the Giants’ bullpen closer to the zone, could result in the runs we need to stay alive. Let’s also run. Now, of course we’ve got to get on base to do that, but we can hit Peavy, and he can get emotional. Let’s get all over him. Run wild. Get back to putting pressure on the defense again. WE can do it with the next two Giants starters.

“We feel good about where we’re at, where we stand,” Jarrod Dyson said, suggesting the Royals no longer had to worry about Madison Bumgarner, who, by the way, has won two games in this series already and has a 0.29 ERA – allowing one run (a Slavy Perez HR in Game 1) in 31 IP – in his World Series career. He added, “We’ve got some guys that we can handle, and we can look forward to getting the job done.”

If/when we get to game seven, I think we’ll be there, anything goes. All hands on deck. Leave no weapon untouched. If Guthrie only goes three innings, go Herrera for two, Davis for two, and finish with Holland in the eighth and ninth if that’s what it takes. Don’t leave Willingham on the bench collecting dust. He, as well as Billy Butler, should have seen an at bat in each of the three games in San Francisco. Instead Nix had two AB, Butler 1, Willinham 0 and KELVIN HERRERA 1. Yes, the relief pitcher Kelvin Herrera who HAD NEVER BEEN IN A BATTERS BOX WITH A BAT IN HIS HAND IN HIS PRO CAREER (Because, Ned). Nothing can be done about that now, but learn from it. If Bochy brings in Affeldt for Moustakas late, GIVE HIM HAM. Whatever and whomever it takes. That shouldn’t need to be said, but I do fear Yost holding back and over thinking a move. Yost has a tendency to outsmart himself with some moves, convincing himself that if A, B and C happen, he’ll have the situation he wants for the next move. Unfortunately, he fails to see that making the initial move greatly reduces his chances of A, B and C happening. Keep it simple.

So all in all, it really is simple. You do you, Royals. There is no team that can field the ball better in the MLB in my opinion. Keep that up. It’s your real bread and butter. Put the ball in play and cause havoc on the bases. You lead the MLB in stolen bases because you’re good at it. Believe it. Lastly, Yordano and Guthrie are going to come up huge for this team, and are going to be heroes in Kansas City for a long time. I believe it. This is YOUR time. Sometimes you only get one chance to make history.

No matter what happens over these next 72 hours, I want to thank the Royals for giving this city what it so desperately needed, an attitude adjustment. The “we’ll always be losers” mindset was really getting old. This has been the most fun I’ve had watching major league baseball in my adult life. (I was seven in 1985.) It’s been incredible, really. Seeing Royals gear everywhere I go has been equally special. I ran into Joe Randa at a Wendy’s in Overland Park about ten years ago and even he commented as being surprised that I had a Royals jacket on. I don’t feel so alone anymore.

Now…LET”S GO GET ‘EM !!!

AnimalHouse_098Pyxurz

Follow Brian on Twitter: @briangraham624

Follow Conrad on Twitter: @ConradMcGorkin

Follow us on Twitter: @KCSportsNation

249 Comments

  1. hey there and thank you for your info – I have definitely picked up
    anything new from right here. I did however expertise a few
    technical issues using this website, as I experienced to reload
    the site many times previous to I could get it to load properly.

    I had been wondering if your web host is OK?
    Not that I’m complaining, but sluggish loading instances times
    will very frequently affect your placement in google and can damage your quality score if
    ads and marketing with Adwords. Well I am adding this RSS to
    my email and can look out for much more of your respective exciting content.
    Ensure that you update this again very soon.

  2. Having read this I believed it was extremely informative. I appreciate
    you finding the time and energy to put this short article together.
    I once again find myself spending a lot of time both reading and commenting.
    But so what, it was still worth it!

  3. Hey! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any issues with hackers?

    My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended
    up losing several weeks of hard work due to no backup.
    Do you have any methods to protect against hackers?

  4. Hello, I think your website might be having browser compatibility issues.

    When I look at your blog in Firefox, it looks fine but when opening in Internet Explorer, it has some overlapping.

    I just wanted to give you a quick heads up! Other then that, terrific blog!

  5. I am extremely impressed along with your writing skills as
    neatly as with the structure on your weblog.

    Is this a paid subject or did you modify it yourself?
    Anyway stay up the excellent high quality writing, it’s rare
    to peer a great blog like this one these days..

  6. I was recommended this website by my cousin. I am not sure whether this post is written by
    him as nobody else know such detailed about my problem.
    You are amazing! Thanks!

  7. My programmer is trying to convince me to move to .net from PHP.
    I have always disliked the idea because of the expenses. But
    he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using Movable-type on numerous
    websites for about a year and am anxious about switching to another platform.
    I have heard fantastic things about blogengine.net. Is
    there a way I can transfer all my wordpress posts into it?
    Any help would be greatly appreciated!

  8. Spot on with this write-up, I actually feel this website needs
    a great deal more attention. I’ll probably be returning
    to read more, thanks for the info!

  9. Fantastic site you have here but I was wondering if
    you knew of any user discussion forums that cover the same topics talked about here?
    I’d really like to be a part of community where I can get
    feed-back from other experienced individuals that
    share the same interest. If you have any suggestions, please let me know.

    Bless you!

  10. Excellent site you have here.. It’s hard to find high quality writing like yours
    these days. I honestly appreciate individuals like you!
    Take care!!

  11. Excellent blog here! Also your website loads
    up very fast! What web host are you using? Can I get
    your affiliate link to your host? I wish my site loaded up
    as quickly as yours lol

  12. Howdy! I know this is somewhat off topic but I was wondering which blog platform
    are you using for this site? I’m getting tired of WordPress because I’ve
    had problems with hackers and I’m looking at alternatives for
    another platform. I would be awesome if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.

  13. Wow that was unusual. I just wrote an extremely long comment but
    after I clicked submit my comment didn’t show up.
    Grrrr… well I’m not writing all that over again. Anyhow, just wanted to say wonderful blog!

  14. Magnificent beat ! I wish to apprentice even as you amend your website, how could
    i subscribe for a weblog site? The account aided me a applicable deal.
    I have been tiny bit familiar of this your broadcast offered vibrant transparent concept

  15. Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter
    updates. I’ve been looking for a plug-in like this for quite
    some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience
    with something like this. Please let me know if you run into anything.
    I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.

  16. Hello There. I discovered your weblog the usage of msn. This is
    a really neatly written article. I’ll make sure to
    bookmark it and come back to learn more of your helpful info.

    Thanks for the post. I will definitely return.

  17. Fantastic beat ! I would like to apprentice while you amend your web site,
    how could i subscribe for a blog website?
    The account helped me a applicable deal. I have been tiny bit familiar of
    this your broadcast provided vivid clear concept

  18. Hello there! This post could not be written any better!

    Looking at this post reminds me of my previous roommate!
    He constantly kept talking about this. I most certainly
    will forward this information to him. Fairly certain he’ll have a great read.
    Many thanks for sharing!

  19. Hey there! I’ve been following your website for
    some time now and finally got the bravery to go ahead and give you a shout out
    from Austin Texas! Just wanted to say keep up the good job!

  20. It is really a nice and useful piece of information. I am
    happy that you just shared this helpful info with us.
    Please keep us informed like this. Thanks for sharing.

  21. My brother suggested I would possibly like this website.
    He used to be totally right. This put up truly made my
    day. You cann’t imagine just how a lot time I had spent for this information! Thanks!

  22. Howdy, I do think your blog may be having browser compatibility problems.
    Whenever I look at your site in Safari, it looks fine however, if opening in IE,
    it’s got some overlapping issues. I just wanted to provide you with
    a quick heads up! Besides that, wonderful site!

  23. Have you ever thought about adding a little bit more than just your articles?
    I mean, what you say is fundamental and all. Nevertheless think about if
    you added some great pictures or video clips to give your posts more, “pop”!
    Your content is excellent but with pics and videos, this website could undeniably be one of the very
    best in its niche. Amazing blog!

  24. I blog frequently and I seriously thank you for your
    information. Your article has truly peaked my interest.
    I will book mark your blog and keep checking for new information about once a
    week. I opted in for your RSS feed too.

  25. I really love your blog.. Very nice colors & theme. Did you develop this website yourself?

    Please reply back as I’m planning to create my very own site and would love to learn where you got this from or just what
    the theme is named. Thanks!

  26. Greetings from California! I’m bored at work so I decided to check out
    your blog on my iphone during lunch break. I really like
    the knowledge you provide here and can’t wait to take a
    look when I get home. I’m shocked at how fast your blog loaded on my phone ..
    I’m not even using WIFI, just 3G .. Anyways, wonderful blog!

  27. Howdy just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The text
    in your post seem to be running off the screen in Ie. I’m not sure if this is a formatting issue or
    something to do with web browser compatibility but I thought I’d post to let you know.
    The design and style look great though! Hope you get the problem solved soon. Thanks

  28. What’s up Dear, are you really visiting this web site on a regular basis, if so after that you will
    absolutely take pleasant knowledge.

  29. Howdy, I do think your blog could be having internet browser compatibility problems.
    Whenever I look at your blog in Safari, it looks fine but when opening
    in IE, it’s got some overlapping issues. I just wanted to give you a quick heads
    up! Apart from that, fantastic website!

  30. I do consider all the ideas you’ve presented for your post.
    They are really convincing and will certainly work.
    Still, the posts are very brief for novices. May just you please lengthen them a little from next time?
    Thanks for the post.

  31. It is perfect time to make some plans for the future
    and it is time to be happy. I’ve read this post and if I could I desire to
    suggest you some interesting things or advice. Maybe you can write next articles referring to this article.
    I desire to read more things about it!

  32. It’s a pity you don’t have a donate button! I’d definitely donate to this superb blog!
    I suppose for now i’ll settle for book-marking and adding your RSS feed to my Google
    account. I look forward to fresh updates and will talk about this site
    with my Facebook group. Talk soon!

  33. Hi there, just became alert to your blog through Google, and found
    that it is truly informative. I’m gonna watch out for brussels.
    I will appreciate if you continue this in future.

    A lot of people will be benefited from your writing.
    Cheers!

  34. Hey, I think your site might be having browser
    compatibility issues. When I look at your website in Opera, it looks fine but
    when opening in Internet Explorer, it has some overlapping.
    I just wanted to give you a quick heads up! Other then that, terrific blog!

  35. We’re a gaggle of volunteers and opening a brand
    new scheme in our community. Your web site provided us with useful information to work on. You have performed an impressive process and our whole neighborhood might be grateful to you.

  36. Today, I went to the beach front with my children. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said
    “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She put
    the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear.
    She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is completely off topic but I had to tell someone!

  37. I have been surfing on-line more than three hours as of late, but I by no means found any interesting
    article like yours. It’s lovely price enough for me. In my
    opinion, if all web owners and bloggers made excellent content as you probably did, the
    web will likely be much more helpful than ever before.

  38. It’s a pity you don’t have a donate button! I’d most certainly donate to this
    excellent blog! I guess for now i’ll settle for book-marking and adding your RSS feed to my Google account.
    I look forward to new updates and will share this website with my Facebook group.
    Talk soon!

  39. An outstanding share! I’ve just forwarded this onto
    a coworker who was conducting a little homework
    on this. And he in fact ordered me dinner due
    to the fact that I found it for him… lol. So let me reword this….
    Thank YOU for the meal!! But yeah, thanx for spending time
    to talk about this subject here on your web site.

  40. Hey! I know this is sort of off-topic however I needed to ask.
    Does operating a well-established website such as yours require a large amount of work?

    I’m completely new to operating a blog however I
    do write in my diary on a daily basis. I’d like to start a blog so I can share my own experience and views online.
    Please let me know if you have any suggestions or tips for
    brand new aspiring bloggers. Appreciate it!

  41. Its like you read my thoughts! You seem to grasp a lot
    approximately this, like you wrote the e-book in it or something.
    I believe that you just could do with some p.c.
    to drive the message house a bit, but other than that, that is wonderful
    blog. A fantastic read. I will definitely be back.

  42. You can certainly see your skills in the article you write.
    The sector hopes for even more passionate writers such as you who are not afraid to say how they believe.
    At all times go after your heart.

  43. An interesting discussion is worth comment. There’s no doubt that that
    you should publish more about this subject,
    it may not be a taboo matter but typically folks don’t talk about these topics.
    To the next! All the best!!

  44. This is the perfect site for anybody who wants to find out about this topic.
    You know a whole lot its almost tough to argue with you (not that I actually will need to…HaHa).
    You definitely put a new spin on a topic that has been written about for decades.

    Wonderful stuff, just excellent!

  45. I do agree with all the ideas you’ve offered to your
    post. They’re really convincing and will definitely work.

    Nonetheless, the posts are very brief for newbies.
    May you please prolong them a little from subsequent time?
    Thanks for the post.

  46. Wow, fantastic blog layout! How lengthy have you ever been blogging for?
    you made blogging look easy. The overall glance of your web site
    is wonderful, as smartly as the content!

  47. It’s the best time to make some plans for the future and it
    is time to be happy. I’ve read this post and if I could I wish to suggest you few interesting things or advice.

    Maybe you could write next articles referring to this article.
    I wish to read more things about it!

  48. Hey would you mind sharing which blog platform you’re working with?
    I’m looking to start my own blog in the near future but I’m having a tough time
    selecting between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal.
    The reason I ask is because your design seems different then most blogs and I’m looking
    for something unique. P.S Sorry for being off-topic but I had to ask!

  49. Nice post. I was checking constantly this blog and I am impressed!
    Very helpful information specifically the last part 🙂 I care for such
    info much. I was looking for this particular info for
    a very long time. Thank you and best of luck.

  50. Hey I am so grateful I found your blog, I really found you
    by mistake, while I was researching on Aol for something else, Regardless I am here now and would just like to say thanks a
    lot for a remarkable post and a all round exciting blog (I also love the theme/design),
    I don’t have time to read it all at the moment but I have bookmarked it
    and also added your RSS feeds, so when I have time I will be
    back to read a great deal more, Please do keep up the excellent work.

  51. The other day, while I was at work, my sister stole
    my iPad and tested to see if it can survive a forty foot drop,
    just so she can be a youtube sensation. My apple ipad is now broken and she has 83 views.
    I know this is entirely off topic but I had to share it with someone!

  52. Have you ever considered about including a little bit more than just your articles?
    I mean, what you say is important and all. Nevertheless
    imagine if you added some great photos or video clips to give your posts
    more, “pop”! Your content is excellent but with pics and videos,
    this site could undeniably be one of the most beneficial in its niche.
    Very good blog!

  53. Nice blog here! Additionally your website loads up very fast!
    What host are you the use of? Can I am getting your associate hyperlink for your host?
    I want my site loaded up as quickly as yours lol

  54. I’m extremely impressed with your writing skills as well as with
    the layout on your blog. Is this a paid
    theme or did you customize it yourself? Either way keep up the nice quality writing, it is rare to see a nice blog like this one nowadays.

  55. Amazing! This blog looks exactly like my old one!
    It’s on a completely different subject but it has pretty much the
    same layout and design. Superb choice of colors!

  56. Fantastic site you have here but I was curious if you knew of any message boards that
    cover the same topics talked about in this article?
    I’d really love to be a part of community where I can get feedback from other knowledgeable
    individuals that share the same interest. If you have any suggestions, please let me know.
    Kudos!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *