Projecting the AL playoff race

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The red-hot Royals - a MLB-best 20-7 in August, and winners in 18 of 22 since the acquisition of the Rally Mantis, have gone from 51-58 to 69-62 and just two games out of the second Wild Card in just a little over three weeks. The Royals playoffs chances have increased from 6% to 22% in a week, and I’ve been looking at remaining games on the schedule at all of the competitors for all five of the AL playoff spots. I took the remaining games and figured out approximately how many they’d win based on how they have done overall on the season and how they’ve been playing of late (August schedule). This is really too simplistic of a way to do this. I thought it would favor the Royals too much because of what they’ve done in August. I was right, of course, but there have been a lot of really good August records for all of the contenders (maybe that's why they're contenders), so it wasn’t as drastic as I thought it would be. Maybe I should have done a combination of July/Aug to offset how [Read more...]